Numbers only part of the story regarding Japan's foreigner driving stats

If you hadn't already read about it in the news, the National Police Agency recently released traffic accident data breaking down figures for foreign drivers involved in fatal or serious collisions for the first time. Initially, the headline statistic that 2.1% of such accidents in the first half of this year involved foreign drivers (up from 1.9% last year) seems to suggest a concerning trend.

IMO there is a big problem with the release of this info. The numbers are being presented without enough context, so I feel like it's just going to fuel bias rather than improve road safety.

First, 2.1% is a very small proportion of total serious accidents, especially when you compare it to the size of the growing foreign population here. Most accidents (over 84%) are caused by holders of Japanese licenses, and this category also includes many foreign residents who have already converted their licenses. Because of that, I think it's misleading to draw a clean line between "Japanese" and "foreign" drivers.

Second, focusing on nationality can overshadow far more relevant factors like driving experience, local traffic rule familiarity, and road conditions. If the government wants safer roads, reforms could just as easily target things like universal refresher training, better multilingual resources for newcomers, or infrastructure improvements that reduce risk for everyone.

Finally, publicly linking accident statistics to nationality (without comparable data on Japanese drivers or other risk factors) can unintentionally stigmatize entire communities. For expats like us, this could mean heightened suspicion on the road, despite most of us no doubt being safe and responsible drivers.

I'm in firm agreeance that road safety is an important goal for any government, but policies work best when based on a full picture, not just cherry-picked stats.