Still in Japan in 2027? It might be another bad bear year

Bear stories have felt impossible to escape this year, with a bunch of headlines and news reports talking about close calls, sightings, and actual attacks. I feel like I'm ultra jumpy about the subject because of where I live, since bears are fairly regularly sighted around the satoyama area of our town. Now, there's new research suggesting we might see another spike in 2027, so if you'll still be in Japan then it's worth being mindful of. 

A recent study from the Akita Prefecture Forestry Research and Training Center breaks it down in a way that makes all those scattered stories feel connected. Bears rely heavily on beechnuts in autumn, and those harvests naturally swing between good and bad years. To put it simply, when the mountains are full of nuts, bears stay put, but when the harvest dips, they start wandering closer to towns hoping to fill up before winter. This year's increase in attacks and sightings lines up with that pattern.

Researchers expect a solid beechnut harvest in 2026, which is a little glimmer of reassuring news. However, because good and poor harvests have been alternating for a while, they're predicting 2027 could be a low year. If that ends up being true, bears may roam further again, raising the risk of encounters.

None of this is a guarantee, of course, but it does give a pretty well-researched heads-up. If you're like me and live in or near the countryside, hike regularly, or just follow the topic out of curiosity, it's probably worth keeping in mind too.