Apr 18, 2020
Questioning the level of outbreak as my town gets its first case of COVID.
We knew the day would come. We just didn't know when. And we've been waiting for it for almost two months now. How we heard about it was different than I expected. I had expected we'd hear about it through the Public Announcement system. But it was through a phone tree messaging system on LINE. I suppose that shouldn't have surprised me, but it did.
Actually, before I even got the LINE tree message, my son had told me that his school friends on Fortnite (the game) had told him about it. They did eventually announce it on the Public Announcement system, about six hours after the LINE tree message. Around the time that the information was made public on the town's website; our town officially has its first case of COVID-19.
The man, in his forties, went down in the official record as having COVID-19 yesterday April 17th, after a test came back positive on the 16th. He took the test on the 15th. But as the official information divulges, his symptoms started on the 1st of April with a high fever. If his symptoms started on April 1st, he probably had the virus for a period of time before that. And all that time he was taking the bus and the train and interacting with the world as normal. What I can't understand is - how are there not more cases in my town?
Of course, I hope there aren't anymore cases, but all the information available on this coronavirus indicates that every infected person spreads it to at least one other person, but most likely three or more. But this is something that has really bewildered me about the cases in Japan. Densely populated cities in Japan are now seeing increases in the hundreds daily, three months after our first case, but in other countries around the world they are seeing increases by the thousands weeks after their first case.
Even if the numbers for Japan are inaccurate and / or fudged, how is it we don't see more evidence of that? Its not like there's been an increase in ambulances passing through my neighborhood. Quite the opposite actually. I've several Mama-tomo who work as nurses or Doctors here in Japan and their clinics or hospitals are quieter than ever. I still don't know even one person in my friends, family, community or (real life) network here in Japan that has a suspected case, never mind a confirmed one. But could there be thousands of unreported cases? Is that the most plausible explanation for the disparity between Japan's numbers and those seen in other countries?
We continue to practice social distancing and stay home except for a bit of fresh air and exercise in rarely used parks and nature spots. We are fearful that the worst has yet to come, because seeing how it has panned out in other countries, surely Japan will go the same way? Especially with the very lax State of Emergency. I am hoping and praying it won't. And I can't help wondering if by some miracle could Japan just be having a milder outbreak? Unlikely, but only time will tell.
Former nickname was "Saitama". Changed it to save confusion on place review posts! Irish, 20+ years in Japan! I also write on my personal website: insaitama.com
8 Comments
edthethe
on Apr 19
So far, at least in gunma in our area, they have been really good at containment. I think it's more luck though. The first cases in our town back in March didn't spread like fire even though the doctor who was first diagnosed spent four days working with a fever. Only staff and his wife. The cluster it came from was only family and close contacts. I'm grateful but I still think it's been really just luck.
BigfamJapan
on Apr 19
@edthethe this is what I can't understand though. That's a lot of luck for a Doctor to not spread it to even one more person despite treating them while he was highly contagious. Maybe just maybe there really is much more value in masks than we ever realized. Fingers crossed. I hope you guys continue to stay safe. Thanks a million for commenting.
helloalissa
on Apr 19
After the first reported case in our city, it took at least a couple weeks for the next one, and since several more have come. I really think most people have mild or no symptoms so they keep on as usual. I don't know for a fact that Japan as a nation is checking the 'behavior history' or 行動歴 of each positively tested person, but in Fukuoka Prefecture, they are. I think this careful checking of who patients were in contact with helps to slow it down. I watched a short NHK video (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/9999604/) that showed how opening windows and wearing masks is helpful too. I hope Japan doesn't get as bad as Europe and the US.
BigfamJapan
on Apr 19
@helloalissa thanks a million for the link to that video. I will watch it tonight after the kids go to bed. We're trying to minimize the amount of Covid-19 stuff they hear - not to shelter them from it, they know too well about it, but so as not to overwhelm them with it. It is reassuring to know Fukuoka is being diligent and doing their best to contain it. I hope my town will the same. Fingers crossed.
ReishiiTravels
on Apr 20
I have been hearing lots of stories about how difficult it is to get a test even with severe symptoms. My boyfriend said that even though numbers were down this week, the number of tests were also reduced so it is likely inaccurate.
KamaT
on Apr 21
Lot's of things to think about here. Here in Urayasu in Chiba Pref. I've been told that there were 17 people infected as of Sunday. I guess that was lower than I expected given that we are just across a river from Tokyo. That said, Disney Resorts have been shut for a while now which I think has been a major factor in keeping the numbers down here. You mentioned some clinics that are quieter than ever. As I understand things if you're at home and showing potential symptoms, you're supposed to call a consultation line and the people on the other end will direct you to a medical facility designated to deal with coronavirus patients. You're not supposed to just turn up at any clinic. Could this be behind the clinics you mentioned being quieter? I don't know. Again, that's just as I understand things. I tend to think that looking at the rate of fatalities (as sad as that is) is ultimately the indicator of how worried we should be about this, and in this regard Japan (and South Korea and other nations) seem to be fairing comparatively well. And also, this perhaps gives us reason to be a little more positive because it's almost certainly the case that there are more people out there who have this than the numbers are telling us -- not necessarily through anything conspiratorial but just because of the testing situation (lacking or otherwise) -- and so the rate of it turning into something more serious then is even lower, I guess. I also agree with what @helloalissa wrote in that many people are probably showing only mild symptoms and not seeking any kind of consultation.
BigfamJapan
on Apr 22
@ReishiiTravels I guess we won't really know the extent until testing becomes more widespread. I think where I live we're in a little bubble, because we don't "see" it so its harder to grasp the reality of the situation. As of yet, nobody in my network in our town knows the one and only case in real life so it still seems somewhat unreal, for want of a better word. But people thankfully respecting social distancing (for the most part) and lots of places have closed, so they (we) are doing our bit to slow the spread and that will helpfully help.
BigfamJapan
on Apr 22
@Tomuu that's very true and it is what I heard / believe too - that you can't just rock up to any old clinic. Actually, now that you say that - when DH went to pick up hay fever meds last week they actually had a sign up that they won't accept anyone with a fever and cough at the moment, with a phone number for the city health board to ring for consultation. I think I may have a bit of a case of "seeing is believing" or rather - cause I am not seeing it, its hard to grasp what may / may not be going on elsewhere in the country. I've been looking at the death rates too, as morbid as that is, but as you say it is an "indicator of how worried we should be". My husband wonders if there may have been a similar enough coronavirus in the past in Asia that has afforded this part of the world a bit of immunity as such from it. I wonder if there maybe some truth in the BCG theory. I am kind of clinging onto that hope as the kids have all had that injection as have I and my husband. So many things play a factor I think. It probably hasn't harmed us that this is a mask wearing country that isn't very touchy feely!! I hope you and yours, here and at home, can continue to evade it and stay well.