Cherry blossom on course for early arrival in 2024, expected earliest in Tokyo

Cherry blossoms have been forecast to bloom earlier than usual across many parts of Japan this year with Tokyo expected to be the earliest place in which to welcome the cherry blossom season.

A warmer-than-usual winter and above-normal temperatures in February - expected to continue through March - have accelerated the growth of Japan’s cherry trees across much of the country, according to Weathernews Inc.  

In its latest cherry blossom forecast the weather information provider predicted that Tokyo would see the earliest of the cherry blossoms on the mainland with the season commencing in the capital as early as March 18. Even at the current pace though, this will be a few days behind the previous year when the cherry blossoms were declared in bloom in Tokyo on March 14. 

The next earliest locations in Japan to see the sakura are expected to be Fukuoka (March 19) followed by Nagasaki and Yokohama (March 20).

Cherry trees in Japan’s Kansai region are forecast to be in bloom a few days earlier than the previous year. Flowering is expected in Osaka and Kyoto from March 22 while in Nara it is expected from March 25, according to Weathernews.  

Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido looks set to see the cherry blossom season arrive particularly early this year with the blossom front expected to hit the region in mid-April. However, the timing may be a few days behind the record-early arrival of the blossoms in 2023. Popular cherry blossom spot Goryokaku Park, in the southern Hokkaido city of Hakodate, is expected to bloom on April 17. 

(Screenshot from website of Weathernews Inc. showing cherry blossom forecast for Japan in 2024.)

The official blooming of the cherry blossoms in Japan is determined by monitoring the flowers on designated “sample” Somei Yoshino cherry trees across the country. Leading up to forecasted blooms, officials from the Japan Meteorological Agency visit the trees daily to check for the requisite presence of five-to-six flowers before declaring them to be in bloom. 

If you’re in Tokyo around March 18 then, keep an eye on a tree in the grounds of Yasukuni shrine, in the city’s Chiyoda Ward, which has been in service as a sample cherry tree since 1966. It’ll be the one surrounded by loitering camera crews and the odd TV celebrity waiting to be the first to announce that the cherry blossom season has started in Tokyo.  

Cherry trees produce flower buds from summer through autumn when temperatures are typically at their highest.

While the recent unseasonably high temperatures are set to hurry along the arrival of the cherry blossom season for a lot of Japan, cold weather is still required to break the buds from their dormancy and get the process of their flowering started.  Despite the warmer-than-usual winter then, there have been enough cold spells bringing the necessary drop in temperatures to break the buds from their slumber, so to speak.